[Paul Yeager] Welcome back to the table for the Friday, May 15th, 2026 installment of Market Plus.

Joining us now, Naomi Blohm.

I had a plan.

I'm going to throw it out the window already because I wanted to.

I just thought of something.

Whether I want to talk about weather for a minute.

So, on your drive from Wisconsin to Iowa, dry right?

People in the field, dust flying everywhere.

But it was a late start in Wisconsin, Michigan.

What's the impact of that late start?

And if rain comes, say this weekend.

[Naomi Blohm] So okay, kind of a mixed answer.

So, in Wisconsin, we're kind of sort of used to the late starts, but they're mudding it in.

I've heard that a lot this week in Wisconsin.

So, if we get more rain where we are, that's it's just going to be a struggle.

But as I got between Madison and Platteville, I would say maybe 60% of the fields were planted.

So, but then when I got past Dubuque, then it was, you know, just beautiful Iowa where you're.

[Yeager] Stuffed up already.

[Blohm] Yeah.

It was, it was really quite lovely.

But then when you go on social media and you see what's happening in North Dakota, South Dakota, with the wind and just the dust that's blowing everywhere, that's it just it's, it's going to be interesting for this growing season because it is still so dry in the western parts of the Midwest.

And of course, in the Plains.

And you don't know if they're going to recover from that.

You know, you have to have so many timely rains to fix it from the standpoint of being able to grow a crop and not only just fix the drought.

And of course, when you look at the drought monitor index, though, for the Midwest.

It looks okay, but it doesn't mean a flash drought can't pop up.

It doesn't mean that, you know, it's going to be a perfect growing season either.

So, we're always, of course, annually having to tune into the weather forecasts for sure.

So, we'll see.

[Yeager] We spent a lot of time on the main program talking about wheat and the weather in impacting the plains between corn and beans.

Which one needs a weather story to drive it more than the other.

[Blohm] Corn.

So, the perspective right now would be that the corn ending stocks are still so big and that we're going to have this huge corn crop.

But I do think once we get to that June 30th report, we're going to lose probably 1 million or 2 corn acres.

And that changes the story pretty quickly.

Yeah.

So that that then you use like 1 million or 2 less corn acres on top of just a trendline yield.

Then you're going to have carry out that easily drops to 1.7 billion bushels.

And then if you actually have a weather issue on top of that, it could be a very bullish story.

Quickly.

So, this is it's going to be, you know, you thought that the last week was dramatic and volatile.

This whole summer is going to be dramatic and volatile for the grain markets.

[Yeager] I think it was two years ago when we sat here and chatted.

You had a scenario at one point about an if and an if and an if.

Are we even close to having that?

If this, if this that could happen, or are we closer to it than we were a few years ago?

Because you mentioned the big carryout, you mentioned the acres, and you mentioned the ideal weather.

That's.

There's no if in any of that right now as we sit here tonight.

[Blohm] Yeah, no, we don't I don't have that kind of stair stepping scenario at this time.

It just it boils down to for people still kind of hoping for a corn rally.

It's got to either be a major weather issue come July or a flare up in the Middle East would still be a possibility for market prices to work higher.

So, you know, we're probably in that lull that late, late May lull where prices just drift a little bit lower.

But then they wake up again starting in early June.

[Yeager] Well, Middle East, that's the theme of a couple of our questions.

We had a whole lot of great questions this week.

I want to go, Roger, in Nebraska to start because he's one of the two that made the cut of questions involving the Middle East.

And this one is, Roger says, with the recent sell off of the grains, does that mean that the top is in.

Will the inflationary effects continue until the Strait of Hormuz is permanently opened, or are there other reasons for it to continue?

[Blohm] Yeah, so many moving parts.

So short term, I do feel like we have a top end for the grain market just because of the seasonals and the technicals and the lack of specific bullish news out of China.

The Strait of Hormuz is definitely a different story where it's going to keep the crude oil prices supported.

It keeps that market volatility and tension there.

So, we have to be aware of that.

It keeps the fertilizer story alive.

And that's going to be something that fertilizer story that takes us into the next year.

I am actually quite bullish for when we go into 2027.

I think that there is going to be the possibility for a tremendous rally next year.

But just right now, we are on the perception of enough supply between US corn, US soybeans and global soybeans.

Now, the global corn carryout story is actually getting tighter because the demand is so strong.

So now if we have a situation where we have a less than stellar crop here in this country, and then if they're already talking about less production in Brazil, potentially for next year, it's not on that USDA report, but they're kind of starting to talk about it.

So that could be an issue.

And if they don't get the proper fertilizer, you know, there's a lot of moving parts for 2027 that get me excited for, for the grain markets.

But right now, we're, we're kind of stuck.

We're waiting for the conclusion of what happens in the Middle East.

And then we're waiting for July for the United States weather.

[Yeager] I'm not sure which one I want to push back on most.

I think I'm going to go with this one.

Let's talk about the corn production in this country.

Similar setup this year as last year.

In the year before then, the rains stopped.

We got through pollination really good.

It looked really dry from July on in the corn belt.

And we still put record crops in the bin.

We start ideal, we get through July.

Let's just say we get to August with good rains.

That puts a whole lot of corn probably in piles.

What does that do to this scenario?

[Blohm] Well, then then we have a scenario where I think China comes in as a buyer and they buy corn on sale in August, but it would then kind of keep the corn price then more near that 450 area for new crop prices.

If the weather ends up being amazing.

But again, global carryout for corn is now officially trending lower.

So, we have to not only keep an eye on what the United States does this summer for weather, but China.

China grows a quarter of the world's corn, and they use all of it.

And they have to import some.

So, if they don't have a good crop this summer, that's where we need to weather watch equally than the United States.

It's within China.

[Yeager] Okay, so Karl and Nebraska's question don't have to necessarily put it on the screen, but he just asked about the July contract.

You're talking much more December in that situation.

So do we think the July contract that that rally is behind us?

[Blohm] Yeah.

I don't have anything nice to say.

[Yeager] That's fine.

[Blohm] Sorry.

[Yeager] If you can't say something nice, don't say it at all.

[Blohm] Pretty much.

[LAUGHTER] [Yeager] She lives that.

[LAUGHTER] [Yeager] All right, let's go, let's go.

Jim in north Iowa, he's the other question about the oil that I kind of wanted to get into just a tiny little bit, but this one's a little different.

Jim asks if exporting farm products boosts our grain prices, doesn't exporting crude oil boost our gas and diesel prices?

[Blohm] So good question.

From the standpoint of the United States, definitely going to be exporting more oil, more crude oil, more things like that.

And that's amazing.

But just like in the United States, when we are exporting more grains, that's wonderful for demand.

But the main question is what is the perception of the ending stock supply?

Because that is the market driver, the perception our supply is getting smaller or our supplies getting larger.

So, when you parallel that, parallel that to crude oil, right now, the United States, we have sufficient supplies of crude oil production.

The world has sufficient supplies of crude oil production.

It's stuck moving, but the supply is there.

So, demand is great no matter if you're talking crude oil.

If you're talking about US agriculture, when you're talking about exports.

But again, it all comes down.

Your price comes down to the perception of the ending stock supply.

[Yeager] And that's a story that's not going to go away.

I mean, you mentioned fertilizer for 27, fuel for 27.

I mean, if China's going to buy some of our fuel, if Cuba is out, if wherever the headlines take this market, I know gas did dip below $4 for some people this week, but it's right back up.

And that story isn't done either.

[Blohm] Yeah.

No it won't.

You're not going to have a relief at the pump until after Fourth of July.

That's just the seasonality of it.

[Yeager] Okay.

Let's I did kind of run you through in a hurry in livestock.

I want to let you know.

Hold on.

Louise in Kansas, go back to our main program for that wheat answer.

We talked about test weights a little bit, but I want to go Andy, in Iowa, this one is a little more in the livestock sector.

Andy in Iowa wants to know.

So, with cash trade mid to high 60s, will 270 live cattle be in the rear-view mirror or the windshield in a month?

[Blohm] I don't know, is the answer fair?

It's the demand is there.

The demand is not going to go away.

So, I think that's going to keep the cash market absolutely strong until we get past Fourth of July grilling season.

I think that's the thing.

Regarding the futures contracts, the question remains are the funds going to just continue to sit on the long position that they've been doing?

Or at what point do they exit the long position?

And that's the part where we don't have the answer to.

So of course, we continue to watch the border opening.

We continue to see how many imports are coming into the country to offset what we are not producing.

And so, at what point?

That's what that's in my opinion.

It just boils down to the funds.

We have to watch what they're doing every single Friday afternoon.

On that commitment of traders report to know if they're content to sit on the long position.

For now, the cattle story continues to be supportive.

I don't see that changing over the next month.

[Yeager] Fuel stays high, inflation stays high.

New fed chair comes in, raises interest rates.

What does that do to the funds who aren't normally in agriculture and their appetite.

Are they going to go looking for something else because they equities are going to fall off or sell off or I mean does any of that other policy that we don't normally talk about on this show?

What does that do for commodities?

[Blohm] Well, okay.

So, when interest rates are up, what happened the last time interest rates, excuse me, started climbing after Covid.

And now of course, they had been on the decline.

But when the interest rates go up, the funds have a tendency to not participate in commodities as much because they can go park their money in a money market.

So that's that is the potential risk.

So, we have to keep an eye on that.

[Yeager] Okay.

And, and that and the reason I asked that coming out of livestock is because the two sometimes have been together, maybe not much lately.

They've kind of separated.

So, all right, I'm gonna do a super cycle thing to close.

Okay.

This is a dairy one.

And there were a lot of great questions again.

So, thank you, everybody who hit us up on Facebook this week.

But let's finish with Dan in Nebraska.

What is the best dairy investment for the commodity super cycle?

[Blohm] Well, I just think of it in terms of dairy products right now.

Each one is just on fire in terms of the demand that's there.

Just because of this protein kick that America is on.

And that is going around the world.

When you look at American exports of dairy product, each one just is a fantastic shining star of a story.

So, to pick one specifically, I don't know that I could I'm just happy that, you know, I'm from Wisconsin and my husband works in the cheese industry.

So, we're all just happy that the demand is there and that things are going good.

But I feel like the dairy market continues to be just a really, really friendly story.

What we'll see is when they start doing any culling of the herd for any reason, because the number of cattle of dairy cows milking has been record high, which is what's leading to that record production of milk.

So, it's more about the production at this point than the demand.

[Yeager] Which years ago that would have been a woe tale.

[Blohm] Yeah.

[Yeager] And now it's a yay tale.

[Blohm] Yeah.

Right.

Right.

It demand is where it's at right now on the dairy side.

So that's.

Yeah.

[Yeager] And you and I both know from personal experience the protein demand is real in our households.

[LAUGHTER] [Blohm] Yes, yes, with our grocery bills, with our children who play football.

We know all too well about the demand story.

When I think of, you know, I look at our cupboard and the protein powders that are in there and the protein shakes that your son is consuming.

Yes.

And then protein as a snack, just having ground hamburger as a snack or shredded chicken as a snack.

It's, it's, it's a good time for the protein sector.

[Yeager] All right.

Naomi Blohm, great to see you.

Thank you so very much as always.

Fun to hear you.

All right.

That's Naomi Blohm.

Next week we are going to talk about the ticking clock that's facing the dairy industry.

And we're going to have Sue Martin here to talk about the commodity markets.

Thank you so much for joining us.

Have a great week.