>> In effort in the Senate to curb President Donald Trump's war on Iran failed this afternoon on a mostly party line vote.

The move came after days of joint strikes with Israel without congressional authorization.

Earlier today, the White House said ground troops are not currently under consideration but would not rule them out.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the U.S.

is winning decisively and intends to control Iranian airspace.

One human rights group says the civilian death toll in Iran now stands at more than 1000 lives.

Joining us now are.

Jacqueline Sapor, author and Iranian American commentator and a native of her on and on zoom Ibrahim, Abu Sharif journalism in Middle Eastern studies, professor at Northwestern and author of Social Media, Religious Authority and the Arab Gulf Crisis.

Bush Reef joins us from Jordan due to airport lockdowns in the region.

Robert Pape, political science professor at the University of Chicago.

He's founding director of the project on Security and Threat.

And Richard Porter and attorney and longtime member of the Republican National Committee from Illinois.

He was White House adviser to President George HW Bush and Vice President Dan Quayle.

Welcome back, everyone.

We have this discussion last week before the things that started happening started happening.

Jacqueline, to you first.

What was your first reaction to hearing about the strikes?

>> it's very emotional.

Many cases that have been hit his bright, my neighborhood, for example, may have about airport where my parents used to work when I was a child.

I traveled internationally through there that was targeted.

So it brings a lot of emotions back to be you know, since Bob, I there was lot Iraq war for 8 years.

I live 7 years through that more.

So I was personally on the bombings.

I know they experience and the current keen ear on with the death of the supreme leader.

There is a 40 mourning period and she extradition for the 40 days are of a sacred time.

And Ed, there's also a 7 day, lockdown double.

The stock market closed.

Government offices are closed.

Schools are closed and it's Internet is shut down.

So it's a difficult too, when none of my what's up, take SOT and said people cannot you cannot call to Iran.

They can call you if they have international >> Have you have you heard from any family or friends on the ground in Iran way you can call us?

We've heard many of them.

Yeah, could call.

Yes.

What a >> And it's very live in fear.

It's hard to you know, President Trump has told them to stay home, but there are a lot of traffic jams, people.

Are you at traffic a nice to get gas?

They want to have full tench.

Anybody who can tries to go to the north part of the country, the Caspian Sea creatures a little safer, but everybody can't goal.

They have jobs, staff avenues.

So for now.

It on said what time him.

As we mentioned last week, you were here in the studio.

But since then, you have returned to the region and you can't get out because of the lockdowns at airports across the region.

So you're stranded there.

How would you describe the situation that you're seeing around you and in the surrounding area?

>> Well, I'm in contact with many of my students and colleagues to now.

as I was flying here from Chicago to Jordan, to take connecting flights and the Delhi airport was shut down.

So I basically have to stay here.

as airport, I don't think it's going open up any time soon.

So I'm looking maybe to get out and go back to Chicago.

airport in Amman has limited operational hours.

And so many flights and make reservations for that are canceled, you know, and this year's relatively quieter than let's say that our goals, I do hear sirens and I someone rocket in a way to since getting shot down.

But otherwise it's relatively peaceful.

>> Have you been given any sense by either the government there or the airlines when you might be able to leave?

>> Well, the government has been doing very much at all.

And this is a sort of most colleagues, American colleagues, myself, what we are a little bit frustrated with 13 trying to do.

I think at the airport and Ashley get on the plane.

>> Robert Pape, you've talked at length about the U.S.

intervention and what you call leadership decapitation leaving that vacuum in in power structure.

What are we likely to see play out with regard to Iran's leadership?

>> Well, we are seeing is that President Trump is up against the weight of history.

Not just you're on for over 100 years.

States have been trying to topple regimes with air power on.

I studied this extensively for 30 years but was too big book bombing to win.

Talk for the U.S.

Air Force.

But we started culls on every precision air campaign in foreign There will be another piece in Foreign Affairs committee out on this air campaign in just a few days.

And I just started a substack called the escalation trap really of the week ago when we had our talk, we are falling into the fate of history for 100 years.

This has been tried and it has failed, which is, in my words, carefully 100% of the time.

We rarely have military patterns of 100% or international patterns of 100%.

America Union states has tried this many times in the smart bomb age.

Other countries have tried.

Russia has tried.

There's really no model for success or not.

When you combine with ground power, you can take emerging sometimes sometimes with a big rounds right in here, power, but not with air power alone.

And that is the fate of that.

Donald Trump is now up against a man you're seeing what happens when you try.

>> We've way you get lashing back and that is what has happened.

A much wider war than was anticipated.

And this is I am sorry to remiss stock and the chaos here is not going away anytime soon.

This is what exactly I said would be staged, too.

So if you recall, well, week ago, we said we would do stage 100% tactical success, probably kill the leaders.

We did.

And we still got stage to lashing back.

And this is a historical pattern.

And so we're now in the grips of this more on time.

>> Robert, the part of the failure that you're talking about, I want to be sure, I understand is the toppling of the regime or the attempt to topple a regime.

But it does not result in whatever it is.

The leadership and the change of regime in the change sort of politics that the U.S.

is hoping to install.

>> There.

That's exactly right.

He is not just about bombs, hitting dirt targets are killing people.

It's bombing by by the state is changing the politics inside of Iran and making the regime more resilient, actually giving it resilience is opposed to breaking it down even as the leaders are being killed.

And the reason is because of nationalism.

It's one thing for society to topple its own people.

They were saying it's another thing for a foreign military power to come in and say, well, we're going to decide who is going to run your country, whether the shots and is going to come in and take over.

There's a decision that's going to happen in Washington, D.C., well, that just doesn't go down well in a We've actually done that before.

And 53 that didn't down.

Well and what you are seeing is when you inject national isn't through bombing, you basically get the opposite here and it's essentially why this is 100% failure record.

And it's because it's a self contradictory policy.

>> Richard Porter, there is, you know, there's bombing and then there have been retaliation strikes in Israel leading to casualties.

And in addition I think it is 6 service members in the U.S.

military White House has not ruled out ground troops but says that they are not necessarily currently under consideration either.

What is the likelihood that that it that becomes the situation at the U.S.

and ground troops as well?

>> Well, look, I think, honestly, the Navy SEALs are probably already in Oran.

I think it's really troopers are in Iran to secretly.

In the side agents and so forth think they're helping with some of the direction of some of the bombing.

So I think it's sort of definitional issue.

I think I think Robert's be able to negative about the prospects for success here.

I think Clinton, bombing campaign most of the church in Yugoslavia, slash Serbia back in the Mid 90's.

And so that was a successful air only campaign.

And what's different about this to as it were bombing a government that has been brutalizing its own people.

And so what we're trying to do, the ground troops, if you will, are going to be the Iranian people themselves.

We're creating an opportunity by destroying the terror state that was holding the people down to allow the people to choose their own successor to rise up and to take the power themselves.

It's well known that regard.

Did you see the Iranian women's soccer team that refuse to saying the women's then that the Iranian national anthem at that international tournament just a couple days ago to me that was sort of a sign of how deeply ingrained the anger is at a regime that killed more than 30,000 its own people who are protesting because they are government is not providing the basic necessities and instead they're trying to impose a reign of terror over things like where the knife hair showing.

So can I please quickly respond since cold air out in terms of >> want to get Jack London on here on this.

Well, okay.

But just quickly, I interviewed Wesley Clark afterwards and negotiated the present family to go.

She did with laws, make it a lot about this case.

>> He's leaving out that this air war was not just an error or we put 40,000 ground troops on the circling cause of the cost and we were about to unleash that campaign.

And that is what got most of to surrender.

He was not topple, though.

This was something that happened until way after this point.

When we got distracted and his own people that it we didn't have much to do with you have the opportunity matters that don't miss we the public.

>> All right.

I want to get Jacqueline in here because you are the people here hopefully you are.

You are hopeful that I hear you nodding your head a little bit to what some of what Richard Porter saying prior to the strike.

There are thousands of Iranian protesters who were killed by the government in retaliation for their descent.

Where are the people of Iran left in their effort?

They are not the people before those protests.

Something has changed.

What people in asking right now.

>> Isn't this something that was stolen from them that they had before when women take their hijab is something that they became me something their mothers had before and the ruin of his up levee I think is strong here.

He's main opposition leader.

He some someone who can all the opposition together.

He's willing to go back any time that's necessary.

>> I think he can bring cold the minorities together and what we're doing right now isn't rewiring the whole Middle East for a safer future for millions of people we and it's not so farfetched.

We have had we've been through Abraham Accords, possibly we can get to the Cyrus.

A court's Cyrus was the first king of polls showing van.

I think hopeful but was still the story of your own has not ended yet.

We don't know what the outcome would be, but we'll see what happened.

only been literally a few 5 days.

Do you Iranians, though, we'll see the?

>> The implementation of a liberal democracy anytime soon.

Maybe return.

Like you said, you didn't mention falls.

But right now.

>> There is a people in council is still the supreme leader is the president meant must with pezeshkian and head judiciary and most and another cleric by the name of atrophy.

seems that I don't know if it's a approved yet, but it seems that much trouble Hominy the son Ayatollah Khomeini who was killed, he would become panic, successor, but we will see there's another hypocrisy in this machine, for example.

And, you know, journey was currently in trying retaliation and all against us and the Israel, his own daughter lives in America.

So it's a little complicated with Olga expansion of the missiles and going through Amman, Amman, Jordan, UAE, bridge all that.

What I'm concerned is in Middle East, is water shortage.

Water is very scarce.

And what if the missiles hit a see plant had with the Taishan plant.

You know, because of that part of the world, they take the water from the sea and convicted to drinking water.

What the fact that people without water, this official complicated.

Ibrahim, a these strikes have hit, you know, speaking of complicated, they have hit hospitals, at least one school where over 150 girls are reported to have been killed.

>> And you have said that these tactics you believe followed the same playbook as Israel strikes in Gaza.

Why do you draw that comparison?

>> Well, that's not a single also Lebanon.

What we see is the destruction of, you know, schools and hospitals are protected international law.

And if you tighten your actually breaking the law.

And so I don't think that this was an accident because Gaza, every schools destroyed, every college was destroyed.

Most of the hospitals were destroyed.

And this and you can't have that many accidents accidents.

this is a pattern.

one of the reasons powers like to teaching value and this really the civilian infrastructures is to lives of people to defeat and make them feel defeated his so and then the rumors are coming out of this wasn't lot to on But of course, if there's nothing, there's a 0% possibility that that's the case.

He's so this was a and, you know, was terrible disaster.

However, there is something pattern.

See their this really And we also saw hospices for and that that is a intensity, more lies.

People kind.

So is why is it?

>> Is that a fair comparison?

Know?

I think every war has its own contacts, its own objective and he reality you cannot compare.

And my question is, of course, it's a tragedy.

Wars cause casualties, say never temple.

It's very, very sad.

But my question why was that school adjacent to an IRGC command center.

>> that, know, that there's evidence that there was stray missile that went up and went down and hit that school.

And that's what happens sometimes in the in the Gaza Strip.

I mean, the problem also is, is that you have people who use human beings as shields.

Hamas was costly going in the schools and hospitals to try to hide their military activities within those areas, that's the problem.

You get away with that sort of So have the 3 leaders now they're hiding in hospitals in Tehran for the same reason.

But this is why you have people on the ground are going to smoke that Mostly smoke those guys because, just wanted that really just going to come back to you in just a professor.

Ibrahim going I what I'm saying everyone uses the human shield, these great issues, palaces or human shield in And so I mean, gas is not that big.

if you're looking for some ask people Jason see this, even if the adjacent propulsive it is strategic.

>> International law protects the into civilians from being targeted.

And so I think all of the cases in Hamas was accused of being hospitals had been.

You bumped and ivory surprise.

Robert is still saying because just not Not true.

I get hospital last yeah, I'm going robbery came in.

Let me let me please come in and talk about the actual strategic was saying from >> Gaza, which There are only 2 million people in Gaza.

Palestinians and in 2 and a half years with enormous amount of air power Norma's grounder.

Me.

>> Israel defeat the Hamas regime just to be clear now we're going without that ground force and only with air power against Iran, which has 92 million people.

Think about that for a moment.

And we're talking about, OK, so let's see if we do this for what, 2 and a half years we're going to bring.

Are we really going to try to re create Gaza in in this situation here?

I don't.

I think this is about Blue.

Jean been a problem here is the big problem here is we're getting focused on tactics when we got to see the big picture and for Ron has a lot of tools at its disposal to hurt because they're getting weaker.

We're going to come back the second and go into second here will when people chant from the balconies this to the regime, they shoot You're talking louder.

Chivas took own people.

>> So it's doesn't have the support of its own people either direct, OK lie to will do we don't have a right talk about a film.

And I do want to get back to the big picture, though.

And what would an exit strategy look like?

How long as it's going to be going on?

First to you, Robert Pape.

And then to you, Richard Porter, thank you.

>> Well, President Trump signed the words of a normal.

He had an exit strategy last Friday.

>> Where he was offered a better deal that Obama had any turned it down.

So now he can quit and say I'm the head.

I just wanted to blow the supreme leader and a few missiles that he'll pay a huge price for that or he can this ride for 2 or 3 months in become likely.

Lyndon Johnson in 1968.

This long war is the weak underbelly of America.

our enemies know that.

And we're falling right into the smart bomb trap that plays to Iran's advantages.

And then it's not about their Navy.

It's about long war.

And you can see this is already starting to pull MAGA Richard Porter, what I would say is the exit strategy is actually blow up all of their launchers and missiles.

I mean, you are using the degradation of their retaliatory ability.

>> They were down 23% just from yesterday and their $1.80 1% since the first day.

In terms of number missiles.

They're putting up.

>> We've been able to blow up a lot of their missiles and destroy their launchers.

Our base case mission in this in attack.

>> Is to DEC, does to eliminate their ability to attack other countries in the region and to dismantle their terror regime from the air by blowing stuff up.

I mean, that's essential to a blown up.

Police stations.

We're blowing up there.

The technological hubs that they used to monitor people.

And then if you saw the news story that the way that the Secret Service agencies were able to track the Iranian leaders was they use the Seville Lee monitoring system they use to the morality.

Police used to track people in Tehran just a of time into that and track.

Instead the leaders of the of the regime and going run North.

>> Ibrahim, I'm gonna give you 30 seconds.

Please.

>> Yeah.

Just a comment about the lineage of the Shah of Iran.

It's I think it's extremely naive to think that he's going to have easy time does every as an opportunity to take really the country because it will bring back memories that we can for get out that the Shah Iran and some on the secret police make the current regime like Boy Scouts that they were devastating.

There were devastating to the people they have.

They have the bodies buried over the place You know, we're in deficit in regime.

So if you bring back to Charlie people are not going to forget the tire of of that of that regime.

Not your agents of all right.

>> Unfortunately, we're actually are out of time.

But I do have to let you go.

so